Editorial: $145bn Debt Mountain : Is Tinubu Borrowing Nigeria Into Trouble?

The figures are staggering. The warning is unmistakable. Nigeria’s external debt has ballooned by 74.3 per cent in a decade, raising urgent questions about fiscal discipline, economic priorities and the burden being passed on to future generations.

Nigeria is sinking deeper into a debt hole, and the latest figures from the World Bank should send shock waves through the corridors of power in Abuja.

The country's external debt has surged to a staggering $145 billion, up from $83.213 billion in 2015. That represents an increase of $61.8 billion, or 74.3 per cent, in just ten years. These are not mere accounting figures. They represent mounting financial obligations, shrinking fiscal choices and a potentially crippling burden on generations of Nigerians yet unborn.

The troubling question is no longer simply how much Nigeria owes. It is what the country has achieved with all this borrowing.

Where are the corresponding investments in productive infrastructure? Where is the transformation in electricity supply, industrial capacity, healthcare, education and job creation? Where is the economic prosperity that should accompany such enormous financial commitments?

Borrowing is not inherently bad. Nations borrow to build, expand their economies and finance investments that generate future wealth. But borrowing without measurable returns is a dangerous gamble. When debt accumulates faster than the productive capacity needed to repay it, development becomes a hostage to creditors.

The composition of Nigeria's external debt makes the situation even more revealing. Public and publicly guaranteed debt accounts for $62.4 billion, while private nonguaranteed debt stands at $54.476 billion. Short-term external debt contributes another $28.139 billion.

Among public creditors, multilateral institutions account for $31.365 billion, private creditors $24.352 billion and bilateral lenders $6.683 billion. The World Bank's International Development Association alone accounts for $18.533 billion, while China's $5.672 billion makes it Nigeria's largest bilateral creditor.

These figures expose the scale and complexity of Nigeria's financial obligations. They also demand greater transparency about how borrowed funds are deployed, who benefits from them and what concrete economic value they deliver.

Even more alarming is the growing pressure of debt servicing. Every dollar diverted to servicing external obligations is a dollar that cannot be spent on essential public services or productive investments. For a country battling widespread poverty, unemployment, inadequate infrastructure and a weak healthcare system, this trade-off is particularly painful.

There is, however, a seemingly encouraging development in the World Bank's figures. Nigeria's external debt-to-exports ratio declined by 4.3 per cent to 212 per cent, while its debt-to-Gross National Income ratio fell by 6.6 per cent to 51 per cent.

These improvements deserve recognition, but they should not become an excuse for complacency. A decline in debt ratios does not erase the sheer size of the debt stock, nor does it automatically mean that the country has become financially comfortable. Nigeria must distinguish between improving indicators and genuine economic resilience.

The government must also resist the temptation to present new borrowing as a convenient solution to every fiscal challenge. Debt cannot permanently compensate for weak revenue generation, wasteful expenditure, corruption, poor project execution and an economy that fails to create sufficient value.

What Nigeria urgently needs is a comprehensive debt accountability framework. Every major loan should be tied to clearly defined projects, transparent procurement processes, measurable development outcomes and independent audits. Nigerians deserve to know not just how much their country borrows, but precisely what those loans deliver.

The Federal Government must also widen the country's revenue base, strengthen tax administration without crushing struggling households and businesses, tackle oil-sector leakages and invest in sectors capable of generating foreign exchange. Agriculture, manufacturing, solid minerals, technology and non-oil exports must become serious pillars of economic policy rather than recurring promises in budget speeches.

Above all, the government must demonstrate fiscal discipline. Borrowing should be the last resort for financing poorly managed recurrent expenditure, not the first option whenever revenue falls short.

Nigeria cannot continue to mortgage its future while millions of its citizens struggle to secure the present.

A $145 billion external debt is not merely a financial statistic. It is a national warning. It is a test of leadership, accountability and economic judgment.

The danger is not that Nigeria owes money. The danger is that the country may continue accumulating obligations without building enough wealth to meet them.

Future generations should inherit a stronger economy, not an endless repayment schedule.

Nigeria must stop measuring progress by how much it can borrow and start measuring it by how much wealth, productivity and prosperity it can create. The debt clock is ticking. Abuja must wake up.